Midterm Elections—What Do They Mean for Markets?
It’s almost Election Day in the U.S. once again. Every two years, the full U.S. House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate are up for reelection. While the outcomes of the elections are uncertain, one thing we can count on is that plenty of opinions and prognostications will be floated in the days to come. In financial circles, this will almost assuredly include any potential for perceived impact on markets. But should long-term investors focus on midterm elections?
ELECTION RESULTS TYPICALLY DON’T LEAD TO CLEAR-CUT OUTCOMES FOR INVESTORS
We would caution investors against making short-term changes to a long-term plan to try to profit or avoid losses from changes in the political winds. For context, it is helpful to think of markets as a powerful information-processing machine. The combined impact of millions of investors placing billions of dollars’ worth of trades each day results in market prices that incorporate the aggregate expectations of those investors. This makes outguessing market prices consistently very difficult.¹ While surprises can and do happen in elections, the surprises don’t always lead to clear-cut outcomes for investors.
The 2016 presidential election serves as a recent example of this. There were a variety of opinions about how the election would impact markets, but many articles at the time posited that stocks would fall if Donald Trump were elected.² The day following President Trump’s win, however, the U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, closed 1.1% higher. So even if an investor would have correctly predicted the election outcome (which was not apparent in pre-election polling), there is no guarantee that they would have predicted the correct directional move of the stock market, especially given the narrative at the time.
But what about congressional elections? For the upcoming midterms, market strategists and news outlets are still likely to offer opinions on who will win and what impact it will have on the markets. However, data for the stock market going back to 1926 shows that returns in months when midterm elections took place did not tend to be that different from returns in any other month. Regardless of which party won the election, Congressional election month returns have historically been randomly distributed and well within the typical range of stock market returns. (See Figure 1.)
IN IT FOR THE LONG HAUL
While it can be easy to get distracted by month-to-month returns, what really matters for long-term investors is how their wealth grows over longer periods of time. (See Figure 2.)
Both parties have had periods of significant growth and significant declines during their time of majority rule. However, there does not appear to be a pattern of stronger returns when any specific party is in control of Congress or when there is mixed control, for that matter. Markets have historically continued to provide returns over the long run, irrespective of which party is in power at any given time.
Stock markets can help investors grow their assets, and we believe investing is a long-term endeavor. Trying to make investment decisions based on the outcome of elections is unlikely to result in consistently better returns for investors. At best, any positive outcome based on such a strategy will likely result from random luck. At worst, it can lead to costly mistakes. Accordingly, there is a strong case for investors to rely on patience and portfolio structure rather than trying to outguess the market to pursue investment returns.
Sources & Endnotes:
¹This is known as the efficient market theory, which postulates that market prices reflect the knowledge and expectations of all investors and that any new development is instantaneously priced into a security.
²Examples include: “A Trump win would sink stocks. What about Clinton?” CNN Money, 10/4/16, “What do financial markets think of the 2016 election?” Brookings Institution, 10/21/16, “What Happens to the Markets if Donald Trump Wins?” New York Times, 10/31/16.
Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors LP.
Disclosures:
In USD. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
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